Those who view weather in much the same way Mark Twain did — “If you don’t like the weather in Oklahoma, wait a few minutes” — are probably not too surprised by projections from climate-change researchers who last year warned that in 30 years, a third of Americans — and everyone in eastern Oklahoma — will live in dangerously hot areas.

Consider the record heat of July 2023, which made it the Earth’s hottest month since records have been kept and likely the hottest in 120,000 years. In addition, last month was the hottest May ever, marking the 12th consecutive monthly record high.

Oppressive heat is forecast as the new norm by mid-century.

But now global warming experts are renewing their alerts that the Paris climate accord “target of 1.5 degrees Celsius is hanging on by a thread. It’s not yet dead, but it’s hanging by a thread,” World Meteorological Organization deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett warned.

The European Union’s Copernicus service, a global reference for tracking world temperatures, reported an average surface air temperature of 60.6 degrees last month, 2.7 degrees higher than the estimated May average before industrial times.

In addition, the WMO predicts the global mean near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 is expected to range as much as 3.4 degrees hotter than at the start of the industrial era.

“Beyond the predictions and statistics is the stark reality that we risk trillions of dollars in economic losses, millions of lives upended and destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems and the biodiversity that exists there,” Barrett says.

Experts continue to blame the burning of fossil fuels — oil, gas and coal — as the main contributor to global warming caused by human activity.

A study by 57 scientists recently revealed that as the world keeps burning fossil fuels, Earth is likely to reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit from the Paris climate accord in four and a half years.

In an effort to slow catastrophic global warming, world officials say emissions of carbon dioxide must fall 9% each year to 2030 for the 1.5-degree Celsius target to be kept alive.

The Group of 20 countries are said to be responsible for about 80% of all carbon dioxide emissions, with the richest 1% of people on Earth emitting as much as two-thirds of all humanity.

“We cannot accept a future where the rich are protected in air-conditioned bubbles, while the rest of humanity is lashed by lethal weather in unlivable lands,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said recently in conjunction with World Environment Day. Guterres called for all countries to double energy efficiency and triple the use of renewable energy by 2030.

The coming heat

While unthinkable heat indices of 125 degrees are currently possible, but rare, in a small portion of the U.S., by 2053, such ridiculously high temperatures are not only thinkable, but are expected to be almost commonplace in the Heartland. The future area of high heat indices stretching from the Gulf Coast to Lake Michigan is forecast to include as many as 50 Eastern Oklahoma counties, all but one of Arkansas’ 75 counties, all of Missouri and Illinois, and most of Louisiana, Iowa, Indiana and Mississippi. Among the major cities in the 2053 sweltering swath are Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Fort Smith/Fayetteville/ Springdale/Rogers, Little Rock, Dallas/ Fort Worth, Houston, El Paso, New Orleans, Memphis, Kansas City, St. Louis, Omaha, Chicago, the Quad Cities, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas and Miami, Fla.

In addition, while Oklahomans expect actual temperatures to breach the 100-degree mark several times during the summer — it’s hit the century mark a handful of times so far this year in Sequoyah County — by 2053, it is predicted to be the new summer norm for most of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia and Florida.

The oven environment is not limited to the U.S. mainland. Europe, parts of Asia and Africa, and Australia have also baked during the past several years, including July when weather record books were rewritten.

“Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning,” Guterres warned last year, adding “the era of global boiling has arrived.”

July 2023 was hot

July 2023 was the Earth’s hottest month since records have been kept and likely the hottest in 120,000 years. That’s not a surprise, especially when Phoenix had 31 consecutive days of at least 110 degrees and waters around the tip of Florida reached triple-digit temperatures usually reserved for hot tubs, surpassing global records for every sweltering July since 2015. Global temperatures in July have been above average since 1977, resulting in a continual climb to last year’s hottest ever.

“In this case, first place is the worst place to be,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., administrator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “July is typically the world’s warmest month of the year, but July 2023 outdid itself as the hottest July and month ever recorded. This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.”

While the trend toward the century mark is becoming the new normal for southern states stretching from Oklahoma and Texas to the Atlantic Ocean, areas of the United States where the mercury almost never hits 100 degrees — northern New England, northern Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain altitudes — are predicted to experience as many as 14 days with triple-digit temperatures by 2053.

While intense heat in the desert Southwest grabbed headlines a year ago, much of the U.S. baked during July 2023. Europe also drew its share of attention with extreme temperatures, and a northwest China township set a new national record at 126 degrees.

Just the beginning

Climate scientists agree that it’s just the beginning. By mid-century, nearly one-third of U.S. residents are likely to live in counties that experience hazardous heat, according to an analysis from the First Street Foundation, which predicts a “heat belt” stretching from the Gulf Coast to Chicago.

In 2023, about 50 counties around the U.S. experienced one day per year with a heat index above 125 degrees, which is considered extremely dangerous by the National Weather Service. In 30 years, more than a thousand counties — a geographic area encompassing almost 110 million people — will be in the danger zone, First Street concludes.

Today, only three Oklahoma counties — LeFlore, Osage and Washington — are likely to experience a heat index of 125 degrees. There are also three counties in Arkansas, with Logan in the Arkansas River Valley being the nearest.

By 2053, however, every county in the eastern half of Oklahoma and all but one Arkansas county are forecast to hit heat indices of 125.

In addition, there are only a smattering of counties in Missouri, Louisiana, Illinois and Iowa that could currently experience those high heat indices. But in 30 years, every county in Missouri and Illinois is in jeopardy, as well as almost every county in Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana and Mississippi, along with the eastern third of Texas, the western third of Tennessee, the western quarter of Kentucky and southern portions of Wisconsin.

Things are also expected to change in southwestern Arizona, southeast California and New Mexico. Arizona and California are already experiencing extreme heat indices, but the number of days is predicted to double in 30 years, and will add several counties in southern New Mexico that are currently not in danger.

In addition, while the East Coast is not currently in jeopardy, by 2053, at least half of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia and the D.C. area, along with southern and western Florida are expected to reach the high heat indices.

In the next 30 years, virtually all southern states from Oklahoma and Texas across to the Atlantic Ocean should expect a heat vortex that will stretch through Kansas into Nebraska, across Missouri and Illinois and over the western half of Kentucky and Tennessee.

While humans can adapt and acclimate to hotter weather, doing so will require communities and governments unaccustomed to dealing with suffocating heat to consider and plan for it. A more extreme future will likely demand physical adaptation, such as planting more trees and cooling roofs to lower the temperature, in addition to common sense steps currently recommended.

Sooner scorchers

While Oklahomans can take consolation when being spared, for the most part, the unbearable heat that has plagued Phoenix and the desert Southwest, the Sooner State has lived through its share of heat waves.

In 1936, when air conditioning was all but unknown, Oklahoma’s record high of 120 degrees occurred in Alva and Altus on July 18 and 19, respectively, and in Poteau on Aug. 10 and again in Altus on Aug. 12. Arkansas’ record high was also 120 degrees, that coming on Aug. 10 in Ozark.

It’s expected to be plenty warm in Sequoyah County this summer, reminiscent of the more than 20 days a year ago when the thermometer topped out at 100 degrees or more in Sallisaw, according to the National Weather Service.

Meanwhile, July 2023 was one of the wettest Julys for Sequoyah County. Oklahoma Mesonet reported that Sallisaw received 4.67 inches of rain, while the National Weather Service showed 5.9 inches of rain for the Fort Smith region.